Changes are coming, but what will they look like?

Now that the long-awaited drawdown of US forces in Iraq has begun, I’d like to look at the apparent course of American foreign policy in the Middle East and to that end break it down into several subsections.

(Subsections: Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Pakistan, other players, and the United States)

First, Iraq. While overall strength may be reduced (as measured by number of troops deployed) American influence will not, I believe, be significantly diminished. If anything I believe that the new Iraqi army, after working and training closely with the US forces, respect and fear our combat ability even more. The Iraqi elite while wishing the US would just go away realize that isn’t going to happen. Therefore the elite will continue to work with America when it makes sense. Soft power (economic, diplomatic, cultural) will continue to increase in effectiveness as it begins to displace hard power. The longer that the US remains a powerful influence upon the Iraqi populace, the deeper the transformative cultural changes will be.
That change is what American neo-con policy wonks dream of in their deepest, most hidden dreams. That Iraq becomes for the US what India has become for the UK. A powerful former possession which, while no lapdog, shares a somewhat common ethos and view of the future. The evolution of India-UK relations seems then to be a roadmap for future American policy. Sadly the course of US-Iraq relations could also take the route that US-Central and South American relations followed. It is imperative that the US shows Iraq a vision of the future that links their rational self-interest with US foreign policy and domestic security aspirations. The triad of peace, prosperity, and security for Iraq should be the ultimate goal of US policy if America hopes to secure any meaningful progress in the Middle East. The shortcomings of US policy in Latin America stem from the US’s failure to facilitate the realization of that triad. Extracting natural resources and labor at bargain prices while propping up whatever regime facilitates that extraction isn’t how two nations build a healthy relationship. While the Middle Eastern labor pool isn’t particularly prized their natural resources certainly are, and not just by the United States. What is needed is that approach known as nation-building. In Iraq’s case, the light beer version of nation-building might be enough. Iraq already has all the institutions a nation needs in place, it just need to help in surviving the rapid evolution which Iraq is living through. The Iraqi people have bought into their government deeply enough that a new polity seems not just possible, but probable. The entire region is watching Iraq with understandably mixed hopes of their own, wondering if and how their own governments will weather the storm of change.