Iran and Syria get chummy (er)

Do you remember during the invasion of Iraq assertions were made that Syria might have received and been hiding Iraqi WMD program components and supplies? Nobody would be shocked if that were true but apparently protecting its neighbors WMD stockpiles is Syrian national policy now. I'm not sure what they are smoking in Syria (hash, I'd guess,) but why on earth would you want to give the US a reason to start lobbing JDAMs in your direction? G. Bush and Co. have been mightily frosted about Syria's continued support of the Iraqi insurgency and the UN continues to be pissed about the Hariri assassination. A wonderful convergence of US and UN irritation is building. Iran has also offered sanctuary for suspects in the assassination if indicted. The whole pledging of mutual military assistance thing is just acknowledgment of reality I suppose. If the US decides to assist Israel in the "downsizing" of the Iranian Manhattan Project, its already understood by Israel that Syria will probably retaliate militarily. I would expect Washington to offer military assistance as long as significant numbers of troops were unlikely to be involved. Logistics, intelligence, air defense, and air power would likely be key elements of that support. The new year is shaping up to be "interesting times."

Ahmadinejad bans "Western" music from Iranian TV and radio

BREITBART.COM - Iran's President Bans Western Music

Now THAT will go a long way towards getting Iranian youth on his side. Banning foreign cultural influences works so well. Just ask the USSR how that turned out.

Iran President's bodyguard dies in ambush

Iran Focus-News - Iran (General) - Iran President�s bodyguard dies in ambush

This is interesting, I guess in the next few day we'll see if there is anything to this. Musharraf in Pakistan has had some difficulties of his own regarding assassins. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, though. I'm guessing that if Ahmadinejad was to get whacked the mailbox wouldn't exactly be overflowing with sympathy cards.

More background on Iranian Intentions

The Intelligence Summit has a great short piece that helps a bit towards understanding Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's motivations behind nuclear development. Of course, joining the international club of atomic powers is quite prestigious, but I'm guessing a desire to incinerate Israel is the trump card. The secular west has such a poor grasp of just how important religion is in the Middle East. If you've studied European history, just think of the Middle East as mediaeval Europe with MiGs and Kalashnikovs substituting Islam for Christianity.

My impression of Saudi Arabia when I was there was that of a 13th century country desperately trying to buy its way into the 20th but failing. Failing because the people weren't coming along into the 20th, just the stuff. This struggle against the transformation of the culture and the man is what seems to be driving the Middle East's unrest. The Islamic reactionaries are pushing back as hard as they can, and you can't push back harder than with nuclear bombs. Ahmadinejad is as reactionary as they get and he won't rest until he has enough nuclear weaponry to lay the west low I fear.

90 days and counting

Israel readies forces for strike on nuclear Iran - Sunday Times - Times Online

It shouldn't come as any surprise that Israel let leak the information that they are gearing up for a serious round of attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. By making it plain those plans on a quasi-official level the IAEA is being put on notice that their diplomatic efforts can't be allowed to fail. I'm afraid that they will, though. ElBaradei had the Official Seal of Failure given to him this week; a Nobel Peace Prize. Ask Jimmy Carter and Yasser Arafat how that turned out. The chance of a peaceful halt to Iranian nuclear weaponry development is getting smaller all the time.

If you don't take care of it, we will

Now the IAEA says what Israel has been saying is true. Iran is just "months" away from having shiny, new, atomic bombs of its own. Makes you kinda wonder about that whole "Wipe them off the face of the map" stuff, doesn't it? I can't help but notice that Iran just inked a deal with Russia to buy some sophisticated air-defense missile systems, too. It looks like we might soon get a chance to see how good American military hardware stacks up against Russian stuff.

The whole process of sternly worded statements by UN and EU types doesn't seem to have made much of an impression on our Iranian friends. Since stern words and toothless resolutions have proved so ineffective in the past, especially when issued by the UN, look for Israel to take care of this themselves. What a holy shitstorm that will be, but if I live in Israel I wouldn't be feeling very good about Iranian nuclear missiles and car bombs.

Update:

Apparently ElBaradei was misquoted in the article I refer to above, a more complete quote below:

"Although IAEA officials have said it would take at least two years for Natanz to become fully operational, Mr. ElBaradei believes that once the facility is up and running, the Iranians could be “a few months” away from a nuclear
weapon."

Natanz is a hardened secret nuclear facility in Iran. Reportedly it is protected by several meters of reinforced concrete and covered with another 20 or so meters of dirt, presumably to protect against bombing attacks. There it is believed is where weapon-grade uranium and plutonium will/is being produced. I feel so much better.

Gashed Legs update

Just in case you haven't read my earlier posts about the leg surgeries I had this summer (and according to SiteMeter, you haven't) hit the link above or scroll down to see what I'm talking about. That, by the way, is my right calf below. Pretty, hey? I was getting a dressing change and asked the nurse to snap a shot for me.

Its been several months now and I've been running without problems. The day my surgeon told me that I could start running I took that to mean I could run around playing rugby and so I did. I whored in for the Wisconsin Rugby Club playing a B-side match and had a great time that very weekend. Of course I was in woeful shape and spent much of the game huffing and puffing as if I were about to croak. I made a few little guys regret attempting to tackle me so the game wasn't without happiness. I'm up to two miles every other night now. That doesn't sound like much but in this brutal Wisconsin winter its more than enough. Once I can run those two miles in a reasonable time I'll start increasing my mileage. If all goes well I should be in much better shape for next year's rugby season. Then those little guys should beware. I'll be able to run them over TWICE each game.

...just trying something out...

JC2045-Church of Joe

Just in case you were wondering what I wanted for Christmas...

2XL would do nicely

Troops leaving Iraq and going...somewhere...else?

I was just thinking today about the reported plans for drawing down American troops in Iraq. Where will they go? Back to the USA I'd assume. Oddly enough though in neighboring Iran the new president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been talking some serious smack. Wiping Israel off the map, passing out nuclear bomb plans like PTA flyers to his neighbors, and purging his government of anyone not exactly loyal to him.

Let me see now, we're several years into a war against a regime which was believed to be working feverishly towards nuclear weaponry and now it looks like we might be finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel there. But wait, right next door is another nation which is unquestionably doing the same. I mean, even Jacques Chirac wouldn't deny that now. With all of the Muslim unrest in his country I wonder if the prospect of a nuclear Iran makes him worry. Any chance that some of those soldiers who might be leaving Iraq could soon find themselves deployed to someplace whose name starts with I-R-A but doesn't end with a Q? Who knows, but I do notice that Iran is pretty much pissing everyone off these days. Now rumors are starting to fly that Iran has been training Chechnyn terrorists. You know, like those miserable fucks who killed all of those schoolchildren in Beslan. Russia has had Iran's back in the past, but their support of Chechnyn terrorists is straining that relationship. And after all, why wouldn't Ahmadinejad be helping them out, it seems part of the manifesto. Just ask people in Iraq how if feels to be on the receiving end of Iranian terrorist exports.

I'm not sure how I feel about all of that, but I just have to remember something I noticed some time ago, when looking at this picture, what is that place between Afghanistan and Iraq? Right. Talk about your hammer and anvil. Between those two nations all sorts of military infrastructure has been built up already and American soldiers have learned an awful lot about how to fight in that part of the world. Invading Iran would almost be like invading Iraq all over again but kinda like a "do-over." A chance to avoid the major mistakes and not make such a hash of it. I'd guess that if such an intervention took place that there would be much less of an occupation going on, more like the original sanctions regime that Iraq lived with during the 90s. This time with unfettered access to any potential nuclear sites and probable elimination of any meaningful military power.

Something more to think about.

Reading a new-old mediaeval history book

I've been reading and rereading medieval history books again. As always, "A World Lit only by Fire" is good as a snapshot of the age. I've finally resolved to plow my way through Edward Gibbon's "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" as daunting as that may be. Someday when I learn Jedi-like powers of discipline maybe I'll tackle Will Durant's "The Story Of Civilization" volumes I-XCIX. *

Right now I'm reading H.S. Bennett's "Life On The English Manor." I have a paper-bound edition I found in a second-hand shop that's been languishing on my shelves for ages. Having read the first third I'm reminded of W.S. Davis' "Life on a Mediaeval Barony." Bennett's is written more for serious scholars in search of extensive footnotes, untranslated Old French, Latin, and other tongues, and a bibliography that would crush a grad student's soul. His scholarship is excellent and his appreciation for fine detail brings clarity to some topics I've wondered about. In particular chapter 5 "Rents and Services" gives me a better understanding of the labor relationship between peasants and lords. The services were variably light or heavy but always an inescapable aspect of feudal society. I'd compare the duty owed by a peasant to work for his lord very similar to a combined income tax, property tax, sales tax; you get the idea.

All governments have some form of taxation, and in mediaeval Europe rents and services were it. Money weren't a big a deal in a society where most of the people either grew or made everything they needed and few consumer goods were available. What was important was land and the labor necessary to do something with it. You didn't ask peasants for coins you asked for sweat. If you want to know more pick up this book and see for yourself. Now its time to run off to bed and read some more of my dead friend Gibbon's words. I see in the biographic sketch in the preface to my edition that he was a soldier. Judging by the descriptions of his (to put it kindly) excessive corpulence he wouldn't have lasted five minutes in the 82d Airborne Division when I was there. (segue to old memories of some sergeant hollering at me "Run, fat-boy!" Gee, those were the days.
* not really 99 volumes, it just seems that way on the shelf.
update; edited for poor spell-check usage