I’ve been hearing a lot lately about the coming cold war between the USA and China. Links here, here, and here. I see more reasons to believe in a possible trade war than a cold war but I’ll only discuss the cold war here. China and the USA have maintained somewhat an uneasy neutrality towards each other since the “end” of the Korean War. The Chinese sat out the cold war and were never very evangelistic about their communism while America’s attention was fixed firmly on Europe and the USSR. China was spared the crushing expense of trying to field advanced military hardware built with obsolete industrial technology. Instead, they built an industrial base that has become one of the most powerful in the world. If needed China could rapidly shift vast resources into defense production much as the USA did during WW2. I needn’t elaborate on the economic, industrial, and military might of America. Democracy and Communism have shared a mutual antipathy through much of the 20th century and continue to do so in a low-key sort of way. Conditions seem ripe for the rise of a new bipolar world power relationship.
But not so fast. Assume for a moment that a new cold war has sprung up. After WW2, the USSR was a very menacing neighbor indeed. Friendly European nations almost mortally weakened by a destructive general war. Buffer states occupied, fortified, and garrisoned by Soviet troops. Jingoistic rhetoric daily. Tanks poised at the border. Very scary. I just don’t see any of that in Asia right now. Sure, Taiwan feels insecure but they really were part of China before the revolution. Japan, South Korea, India, and other regional powers are militarily and economically strong enough to give any would-be attackers pause. Realistically, China’s domestic issues are enough for it just now. Invading neighboring nations just isn’t a viable option now. How about America? Is there any power bloc on earth that really wants the USA to build an even more capable and larger military force? Using two carrier battle groups (CVBGs) the USA could completely wipe out Europe’s entire navy and probably their air forces as well. America has twelve CVBGs at its disposal. America could cripple any nation’s military in a straight-up war. I cannot think of any nation who would encourage the American forces to get even more powerful.
Any new cold war with China and America opposing each other would end up looking a lot like Mutually Assured Destruction, that quintessential doctrine. Either both nations can prosper economically or they can destroy each other. China is heading for serious demographic problems as well as political upheaval as Chinese citizens clamor for more freedoms. It is in the best interest of all the principal players to help facilitate the Chinese transformation to a more mixed economy and democratic society.
