Thursday, October 20, 2005

Weaponizing H5N1; wouldn't that suck?

Back in the day (not so long ago) the old USSR had a program called Biopreparat. Seriously heavy-duty biological weapons were being created under the guise of a vaccine program. I recall a quote from the now infamous Judith Miller upon seeing the giant fermenters used to create anthrax in an old Soviet bioweapon lab. "I thought, 'My God, Ronald Reagan was right, it really was an evil empire.' " Hearing a NYT reporter say that certainly caught my attention. Biopreparat hasn't gone away, though. Hard economic times mean that though much smaller they are still in business. Bad enough. Worse yet is knowing thousands of bioweapon experts are unemployed. Worst of all is knowing just how many nations and NGOs (i.e. Al Qaeda) would love to get some of that expertise working for them.

Plague would be a problem. Anthrax would be a larger problem. Smallpox a very big problem. Just imagine how hellish a weaponized bird flu (H5N1) would be. H5N1's rate of mortality is over 50% now. For the most part the only (somewhat) effective treatment has been Tamiflu and existing stockpiles would dry up quickly. The death toll in poor countries could be astronomical. The United States is better prepared than most nations but even here a pandemic would be devastating. I can't speak for the rest of the country, but here in Madison, Wisconsin many of the hospitals run pretty close to capacity much of the time, especially the intensive care units. Nurses are in short supply and the health care system would be completely overwhelmed in no time. Where would all the sick people be treated and who would treat them?

Am I the only person who has thought of this? Are our enemies even now trying with all their evil hearts to turn this disease into a weapon? A biological weapons factory and research facility doesn't have to be very big and isn't terribly expensive; well within the reach of many bad people. Being able to grow something nasty is one thing, turning that nastiness into a weapon is something else altogether though. Just ask the friendly folk of Aum Shinrikyo who eventually gave up on anthrax and tried sarin instead. Weaponizing biological agents has proved to be technically difficult for the amateurs who have tried, thank goodness. Just to make sure your sleep is less sound tonight though, scroll back up this post and reread the part about unemployed biological weapon researchers from Biopreparat. The expertise to cause the world way too much grief exists and it would be a mistake to believe that nobody is trying to exploit that knowledge for the gain of evil. The question is, what should be done about this? Full steam ahead on vaccine research I say. How about making it legal for drug companies to sell a course of treatment for specific threats over-the-counter? Increased demand from consumers would lead to greater production capacity of necessary medications and might save time and lives in a true pandemic. I can see some issues with that idea but it's intriguing nonetheless. Imagine picking up AnthraxStomper and Plague-Me-Not along with your groceries! In the long run the best defense will probably be a robust counter-terrorism capability augmented with sensible public health policy and preparedness.

Saturday, October 15, 2005

Playing rugby again

I just played my first full game of rugby in several years. My vascular surgeon cleared me to start running and I took that to mean "running after those fast little bastards carrying the rugby ball." I whored in as a second row for the Wisconsin Rugby Club; hereafter known as the WRC. I huffed and puffed around the field like an asthmatic cape buffalo but it felt great anyway. I got in a few good runs and my play led directly to a couple of tries. Not shabby for my first full 15-on-15 40 minute-a-half with real referees and everything game in three years. Now the trick is finding a way to get to at least one practice per week and working my way onto the A-side.

*Disclaimer* if you don't understand any of the rugby jargon above, I'll summarize. I finally played a real, full, rugby game for the first time in three years. I played in an unfamiliar position but still played well. I'm terribly out of shape though and I suffered.

The Packers ... (fill in the blank)

After all these years I finally understand what a paradigm shift is. More on that in a minute. Its five weeks into the 2005 season and my GBPs have pretty much sucked. Why is that?

For a decade now my beloved Green Bay Packers have been a very good football team and sometimes a great one. A combination of aging stars, poor draft position, poor drafting, and poor free agent signing have combined to gut my team. Like a Hollywood building facade, the side facing the camera may be pretty but the other side is just a couple of 2x4s and plywood painted nice.

The better a football team's record, the lower their draft position and no team has been more successful than the Packers since 1995. Dating back to 1995 the GBPs average draft position has been 25.75 out of 30 and (after expansion) 32 teams. Put another way over 80% of the league picked before the GBP after expansion and 85% before. I can't overstate how much consistently poor draft position can cripple a football team. From the starters to the backups the players drafted were judged lesser players. For every Mark Tauscher (high-quality right tackle picked in the 7th round) there'll be twelve Rondell Meallys; a 7th round nobody. The better your picks the better your players.

Poor draft position is part of the price for success, and is a price happily paid by all. Still, when you draft lower it becomes even more important to draft wisely. Ron Wolf seemed to have a knack for finding great players in the lower rounds but his 1st and 2nd round players were sometimes suspect. I'd rather not even talk about Mike Sherman's first round picks. Sometimes a team gets locked into trying to find a particular kind of player and it leads to disaster. Ever since Reggie White retired the GBP has been trying to replace him. The trouble is that great pass-rushing defensive ends are always signed high in the draft. Picking lower you have to take chances to find great players. Those players are there to be had, for sure, but everyone else is looking for them too. Enter one Jamal Reynolds. By trading away players and picks the GBP were able to move up to #10 from #28 in 2001 and pick Jamal Reynolds, an undersized speed rushing defensive end from Florida State. Reynolds never reached the potential that was hoped for him and was eventually traded to another team to avoid the embarrassment of having to cut a former first-round pick. The Packers were desperate for a great defensive end and they gambled on him. On this gamble the house won and Reynold spends his days fishing and hanging out with his friends while the Packers are still looking for that great pass-rushing end.

Joe Johnson was picked up in free agency with the hopes that he could be the pass rusher so desperately needed. But in the few years he was with the GBP he spent most of his time on injured reserve with serious injuries. He was clearly at the end of the line and when cut by the Packers he retired. The money wasted on Johnson could have brought in several mid-level free agents or been used to help keep other players lost because they couldn't match offers by other teams.

I mentioned aging stars, but thinking on it now the GBP don't have any. Brett Favre is still one of the better quarterbacks in the league and all of the old guys are gone except William Henderson; a fullback who is still better than most in the league at what he does.

So, back to the paradigm shift. In the last ten years I've always looked at the Packers and felt that they could go deep into the playoffs and contend for Super Bowls. Now, I watch them play and I say to myself "Well they lost but they looked good doing it." The shift is in my expectations of the GBPs success. I no longer expect them to go far in the playoffs; hell I don't even expect them to make the playoffs. I hope for them to play hard, win the games they should and pray for them to win the games they shouldn't.

Maybe next year.