Thursday, January 27, 2011

Turmoil On The Arab Street

First Tunisia falls, now Egypt seems headed in that direction. I know that I can't be the only person alive who remembers 1989-1990 when the USSR and its satellite puppet states came crashing down. What an amazing time that was to live through.
In both cases repressive governments tried in vain to maintain control of their populace. Alas, media from abroad and internally helped thwart their actions and the governments fell one by one. Not exactly the classic Domino Theory, but the similarities are obvious.
The example of democratic reform in Iraq certainly must be seen as playing a huge part in this play. Until the invasion, occupation, and reformation of Iraq it was widely accepted as fact that the Middle East wasn't ready for democracy, that theocracy would continue to hold sway. The Iraqi example has allowed the blinders to be pulled from the eyes of the Arab youth and other downtrodden peoples of the Middle East. Nobody will be sending GWB a thank you card, but that is where they should be sent. The strategic foresight to push for real and lasting reform politically and economically provided the example of possibility so needed in that benighted region.
What I wonder will the long-term effects be? The fall of the USSR seemed at first the "End of History." How wrong that was. On the other hand, the Middle East could hardly become more dangerous and unstable than it has been these last five decades. If BHO (and by extension HRC) play their cards right they can be seen as a savior to the Egyptian people, and real and lasting progress will be possible. I'm not holding my breath though. This is just as likely to be another "reset" button or DVD fiasco. Still, one can hope.