Thursday, October 20, 2005

Weaponizing H5N1; wouldn't that suck?

Back in the day (not so long ago) the old USSR had a program called Biopreparat. Seriously heavy-duty biological weapons were being created under the guise of a vaccine program. I recall a quote from the now infamous Judith Miller upon seeing the giant fermenters used to create anthrax in an old Soviet bioweapon lab. "I thought, 'My God, Ronald Reagan was right, it really was an evil empire.' " Hearing a NYT reporter say that certainly caught my attention. Biopreparat hasn't gone away, though. Hard economic times mean that though much smaller they are still in business. Bad enough. Worse yet is knowing thousands of bioweapon experts are unemployed. Worst of all is knowing just how many nations and NGOs (i.e. Al Qaeda) would love to get some of that expertise working for them.

Plague would be a problem. Anthrax would be a larger problem. Smallpox a very big problem. Just imagine how hellish a weaponized bird flu (H5N1) would be. H5N1's rate of mortality is over 50% now. For the most part the only (somewhat) effective treatment has been Tamiflu and existing stockpiles would dry up quickly. The death toll in poor countries could be astronomical. The United States is better prepared than most nations but even here a pandemic would be devastating. I can't speak for the rest of the country, but here in Madison, Wisconsin many of the hospitals run pretty close to capacity much of the time, especially the intensive care units. Nurses are in short supply and the health care system would be completely overwhelmed in no time. Where would all the sick people be treated and who would treat them?

Am I the only person who has thought of this? Are our enemies even now trying with all their evil hearts to turn this disease into a weapon? A biological weapons factory and research facility doesn't have to be very big and isn't terribly expensive; well within the reach of many bad people. Being able to grow something nasty is one thing, turning that nastiness into a weapon is something else altogether though. Just ask the friendly folk of Aum Shinrikyo who eventually gave up on anthrax and tried sarin instead. Weaponizing biological agents has proved to be technically difficult for the amateurs who have tried, thank goodness. Just to make sure your sleep is less sound tonight though, scroll back up this post and reread the part about unemployed biological weapon researchers from Biopreparat. The expertise to cause the world way too much grief exists and it would be a mistake to believe that nobody is trying to exploit that knowledge for the gain of evil. The question is, what should be done about this? Full steam ahead on vaccine research I say. How about making it legal for drug companies to sell a course of treatment for specific threats over-the-counter? Increased demand from consumers would lead to greater production capacity of necessary medications and might save time and lives in a true pandemic. I can see some issues with that idea but it's intriguing nonetheless. Imagine picking up AnthraxStomper and Plague-Me-Not along with your groceries! In the long run the best defense will probably be a robust counter-terrorism capability augmented with sensible public health policy and preparedness.

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